We had a couple posts/ articles about the Schedule Reliability Factor, performance (Forecast Completion). At KHONO, and their impact on the completion date. We have also developed the Khono Analysis Toolkit to undertake analysis based on performance. We have tried to shed some light on the topic in this article.
Let’s consider a Project planned for 12 months. After 6 months, the Project has experienced a 3-month delay. This is a critical juncture where standard planning often fails to account for established performance trends.
the Project team/client requests for a recovery plan/ re-baseline. The project team works with Planning to develop the Schedule (sometime its get called realistic schedule!). They check all the logic, duration, interfaces, etc. and finally issue a new Schedule with the completion date of 13 months. They declare that they have looked at all the aspects and are confident that the Project would be finished with only a one-month delay
Even after running a Risk analysis, the P80 date might only show a 24-day variance from the schedule date. This is the typical process many projects follow, but is it actually accurate?
Now, the question is: could this Project be completed in between month 13 and P80 date?
It seems the answer would be “YES”. Because the team checked, verified and adjusted all the logics and duration, so the Project should be complete on or before the P80 date!
Let’s look at the Project from another angle, which is the performance and its impact on the project completion date. According to the schedule forecasted date, the project performance is about 50%. It means, project has spent 2 days to earn a day. In a project that the low performance (performance of resources, quality, production rate, sub-contractor capacity, etc.) become a business as usual or become project’s culture than without improving the performance the forecasted date of the schedule would not be very accurate or schedule would be as reliable as its performance (Schedule Reliability Factor).
Therefore, the project subject matter of this article would be completed in 24 months without improving the performance or fixing the root cause of the low performance.
So, do you know how to calculate a project’s performance? It should be noted that the performance would fluctuate then, do you know how to deal with it and use it for calculation/ analysis purposes?
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