Forecast Date of Schedule Versus Analysis

The Client's Dilemma

We were recently requested to assist a Client in reviewing their Project Schedule, Planning System, and Risk Analysis to verify the Completion Date of their recent Baseline.

Post-re-baseline, the actual curve sat comfortably between the Early and Late curves, suggesting a project on track. The contractor was insistent: the project would finish on time. However, our verification process told a different story.

The misleading "healthy" S-Curve

Our Verification Approach

Verified Plan Curve Data Source: The Planned Curves relied on DUMMY resources. We demonstrated how this misled the team by hiding low performance in the early stages.
Verified Actual Progress Accuracy: We found that the tracking concept for weight values was misunderstood, leading to incorrect activity progress and faulty roll-up data.
Trend Analysis: Assuming weekly progresses were correct, we utilized the Khono Analysis Toolkit (KAT) to determine the true Probabilistic completion date.

Toolkit Results: Probabilistic Completion

The analysis revealed a stark reality: The P80 date is actually 28 months later than the re-baseline finish date!

Key Dates Identified:

P20 Date: 25-Nov-2025
P60 Date: 13-Jan-2026
P80 Date: 06-Feb-2026

KAT Analysis Histogram & Cumulative Distribution

Forecast Comparisons

Contractor's Trend

The contractor claimed they could earn 0.64% per week. Even at this rate, the P80 date becomes 31-Mar-24—still 6 months late.

Required Performance

To meet the original deadline, our report confirmed the contractor must earn a minimum of 0.9% per week.

The Reality of Schedule Reliability

The forecast date of a schedule is directly dependent on the project performance (Schedule Reliability Factor). Without identifying and improving this factor, a project will simply not finish on time, regardless of what the re-baseline says.

Do you know your schedule reliability factor? Or do you trust your re-baseline blindly?