Forecast date of Schedule Versus Analysis

05 Jun Forecast date of Schedule Versus Analysis

We were recently requested to assist a Project’s Client in reviewing the Project Schedule, Planning System, Risk Analysis and verify the Completion Date of the recent Baseline. Since re-baseline, the actual curve is running between Early and Late curves whilst the Schedule does not show any slippages (image below).

It seems that the Project should be finished as per the re-baseline date which the same was emphasised by the contractor as well!

So, what was our approach for this Project?

• Verified the Plan Curve Data Source: The Planned Curves were based on the DUMMY resource with few changes in the budgeted units. We did demonstrate why the S-Curve is wrong and how it mislead the project team (contractor and client) in the early days and hide the low performance.
• Verified The Actual Progress accuracy: The contractor’s team has some sort of Tracking sheet for some of the construction works but the concept of the weight value was totally misunderstood. As a result, the progress of activities was wrong. Also, due to DUMMY resource in the schedule, the roll up progresses were wrong too!
• Trend Analysis: We assumed that the weekly progresses are correct and used the Khono Analysis Toolkit (KAT, Here) for analysis and figure out the Probabilistic completion date.  As per the analysis, the P80 date is 28 months later than the re-baseline finish date!

However, the contractor had informed the Client that they could earn about 0.64% per week. Then the P80 date based on this trend becomes 31-Mar-24. This is about 6 months late!

We reported that to complete the project on time, the contractor should earn 0.9% per week.

It should be noted that the forecast date of a schedule (re-baseline), is directly dependent on the performance of the project (schedule reliability factor) which without improving it, the project will not finish on time.

So, do you know your schedule reliability factor? Or you believe, the output of the re-baseline schedule in 100% reliable?

If you want to review your planning system, schedule, Progress reports and analyse the completion date, then contact us: info@khono.pc.com